Tuesday, June 30, 2009

When tides will change...

I've been thinking of writing this down some time now, so that when it actually happens I'll remember I did think about it.

- Canadian dollar will be worth more than the U.S.
- Apple will start building their product in the U.S.

Please feel free to add your own "predictions" as comments. No date stamps are required - dating is waaaay more difficult than saying something will eventually happen.

(such a bad prediction the dollar rate one - seems Canadian momentarily outvalued USD already in late 2007)


Brad Templeton seems to think fondly of robocars in our (near) future:

I just don't have the confidence they'll make it any time soon, if joined human/automated roads are the target. Let's change this into a prediction:

- Fully automated F1-like races, where the cars drive themselves.

I don't know what would be the fun of it, though. But it would certainly be a real test for the AI of the cars. Are they ready to take risks? Are they ready to not take unnecessary risks? Will they be overwhelmed by the amount of information they'll get from the sensors or are they able to focus on the necessary information?

Once this is done, the next phase would be:

- Joined human / automated F1-like races.

This happened in chess. Kasparov lost to the IBM Deep Blue, when enough reruns were made. It was not a fair game - the way a computer plays a game is so different from the way a human plays it. Same here.

Around _that_ time we might be considering putting completely automated vehicles into public traffic. They would need to pass the regular driver's education tests (s.a. in Finland) first, of course. If they do, I guess they would be as qualified as the average human out there.

But are they allowed to surf the Net while driving...?

1 comment:

dissertation help uk said...

I think on a lighter note, Templeton also created the character of "Emily Postnews" in his Usenet posting "Emily Postnews Answers Your Questions on Netiquette", a tongue-in-cheek list of all the things one should not do when using Usenet.