Monday, May 16, 2011

The efficiency triangle



Moth's Efficiency is Truly Virtuous: Planning Prosperity blog post made me think about efficiencies. While some of that thinking got to a comment on his post, there was more to it.

If we draw "monetary efficiency" and "resource efficiency" on the same picture, we get the above quad-field figure. Now, it seems this visualization will help understand efficiencies in general and maybe cast them into "good" and "bad" baskets.

The problem is - and this is usually presented by the Degrowth movement - that making something efficient tends to also raise the consumption of the now more efficient (= more cheap) product, thus maybe making the end result worse than the beginning.

But something in me has objected that thinking. And the above figure lets us study the different cases of efficiency change.

The axes

On the horizontal axis we have monetary efficiency. Whatever your starting product or average of technology price point is, defines the "You're here" center (1.0 on the scale). Making things cheaper takes you left; making them more expensive takes you right.

The vertical axis works the same, but in relation to some resource. This can be emissions, energy usage, water usage, practically whatever. The thing is that it is independent from the monetary value of things.


Upper left quadrant


In the upper left quadrant are products (or changes to your existing product) that lead to cheaper costs (left) and less resource usage (up). But it matters which one of these dominates.

If your product is made cheaper more than it's made resource efficient, the likely rise in sales will more than eat up the resource efficiency. The white area of the upper left quadrant is what the degrowth people are worried about. Rise is unit-wise resource efficiency but fall in total.

Note that in real life the price elasticity of products (how much more will be consumed for a drop in unit price) is not linear 1:1 as we expect here. That simply means the white and green areas are not clean triangles. To keep things simple and to propose the overall idea of the figure, we're doing it like this.

The green triangle of the upper left quadrant tilts things from bad (increased total resource usage) to good (decreased total resource usage). This is because here the increase in resource efficiency is greater than the added consumption due to price lowering. Simple.

Products that would be placed in the upper left quadrant are such where prices tend to fall. Computers, monitors and (at least it used to be) mobile phones. The latest low price on PC's is $25 (but that product is extremely resource efficient as well).

Upper right quadrant

This is where prices go up but resource efficiency is made better. LED bulbs. Wind and solar power generation. Electrical or hybrid cars.

I've drawn a yellow triangle here but it works a bit different from the earlier quadrant. Here, the question is more on what the ratio of raised price to better resource utilization is. In other words, is the added price actually getting us anything.

If you're within the yellow triangle, increase in resource efficiency is higher than the increase in price. Seems like a good deal. However, if you're within the white area, you might question if you're making the right thing. I.e. you would be making something twice as expensive as the current status quo technology, but only 1.3 times more resource efficient. It might - or might not - be worth doing.

Naturally, the position within the quadrants changes over time as technologies mature. Hydrogen fuel cell cars have been within the upper right white area for decades. If you know a product or technology will be able to "break loose" from the white, it might be worth developing it within there. Price only matters when the product is out on the market. But consider being on the white at least a warning sign (and study which alternatives there are that would be within the green / yellow triangles).

So where to aim?

One revelation (at least to me) from this quad-field figure is that one should aim at the vertical axis. Trying to keep the product pretty much within the current price range (of existing alternatives) while heavily making it more resource efficient seems like the best approach (from the total resource utilization point of view).

Of course, market conditions may state that you should go for lower price (if you can) to grab market space from existing, not so resource efficient solutions. But beware of going too focused on the price alone. Hopefully, the triangle will give you a compass bearing to keep things in perspective.

That's it!

I'm more than happy to hear how you see this figure and/or start using it. Enhancements are naturally welcome. If you reference it somewhere please credit me (Asko Kauppi) unless I've unknowingly stumbled onto something already out there. Things do get invented multiple times, you know.

And if you're in the resource efficiency business, one way or the other, please drop by at LinkedIn De-Growth Companies forum that I founded some time ago.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Liikennerevoluutio osa 2

( About a follow-up meeting of Sitra lead Transport Revolution program starting in Finland. )

Kirjoitin joulukuussa tämän blogiin Sitran Liikennerevoluution aloitustapahtumasta.

Tänään pidettiin samassa tilassa hankkeen toinen julkinen tapahtuma, jossa kerrottiin mitä tässä välillä oli erinäisissä palavereissa saatu aikaan.

Minulla on yritys, joka mitä suurimmassa määrin pyrkii liikennevallankumouksen toteuttamiseen. Sitä taustaa vasten on ristiriitaista katsoa Suomen vakiintuneiden instituutioiden (ministeriöt, Tekes, Sitra, Trafi..) pyristelyä vallankumouksen alulle saattamiseksi. Komeat puitteet, hienot banderollit ja tilaisuutta varten vuokrattu yksityisratikka eivät vain sovi kuvaani siitä, mitä liikennevallankumous (tai mikään vallankumous) olisi. Mutta ehkä tuossa on kyse finesseistä ja sanojen vähän väärästä käytöstä. Ehkä se, mitä Suomi nimenomaan tarvitsee on kabinettivallankumous, mitä sanaa alkuperäisessä blogissakin käytin. Ehkä se on oikea vallankumous tai sitten edellytys sen suuremman tapahtumiselle.

Oli miten oli, esityksessä puhutut asiat olivat pääosin hyviä ja aplodit ansaittuja. Ainoastaan WSP:n edustaja, toimitusjohtaja Matti Mannonen mainitsi liikennepalvelujen ennakoitavuuden merkityksestä. Että jos junat eivät ole ajallaan, on ihan sama, miten nopeasti ne kulkevat. Olen samaa mieltä, myös HSL:n bussien osalta. Itse lisäisin hänen antiinsa palvelujen ylläpidettävyyden ja vikasietoisuuden (resilience), jotka ovat ennakoitavuuden edellytyksiä.

Tavallaan on olo, että edelleen puhuttiin heinänseipäistä. Hanke tarvitsee konkretiaa. Ainoastaan HSL:n Ville Lehmuskoski piti innokkaan, jalat maassa -tasoisen esityksen HSL:n Metropol-hankkeesta (mutta se olikin virallisen ohjelman ulkopuolelta). Kyseessä näyttää olevan tilaustyyppinen, vaihtuvataksainen ja skaalautuva liikennepalvelu, joka toimii jossain taksien ja palvelubussien välimaastossa (ehkä korvaten ne molemmat tai toimien yhteisenä portaalina niiden tilaamiseen). Vaikuttaa hyvältä, on mielestäni menestys jos taksiautoilijat saadaan mukaan tuohon toimintaan.

En oikein tiedä, ketä vastaan tämä vallankumous on. Sanat, joita ei haluta ovat sellaisia kuin "siilo" ja "siltarumpu". Justjoo. Vaikuttaa enemmän politiikan sisäiseltä organisaatiouudistukselta kuin varsinaiselta päivittäiseen elämäämme vaikuttavalta vallankumoukselta.

Aika näyttää. Jos olisin pörssianalyytikko laittaisin statukseksi "seuraa".

Ohessa joitain ohjelmaan tekemiäni merkintöjä mielestäni arvokkaista sutkauksista:

- WSP, Matti Mannonen: ".. olemme saapuneet maailmaan, jossa saavutetuista eduista voidaan ja tulee luopua."
- RYM, Ari Ahonen: ".. että saadaan liikenne positiiviseksi keskustelun kohteeksi."
- Tivit, Reijo Paananen: "Tärkeintä on lähteä liikkeelle."
- Logica, Sami Sahala: "Liikkumisen 2.0"    (huom: ei liikenne 2.0)
- Hannele Pokka: "Pilotteja tarvittaisiin aika noppeesti."

Suomessa käytetään kuulemma vuodessa 20 miljardia euroa "matkoihin ja kuljetuksiin" (tuo tekee kymmenisen euroa *päivässä* jokaista kansalaista kohti). Voitaisiinko ottaa tavoitteeksi esim. puolittaa tuo rahasumma, eli hoitaa koko kansakunnan liikenne puolta halvemmalla (tai vastaavasti liikuttaa puolta vähemmän, tai jotain siltä väliltä).

Tilaisuudessa pyöriteltiin 10% vähennystä budjettipuolen numeroihin. Omasta mielestäni se ei riitä vallankumouksen käyttöön sanastossa, mutta kertonee tämän hetken uskottavuustasosta Suomessa. Jos sanottaisiin, että pyritään puolittamaan, ei hanketta otettaisi ehkä tosissaan. Tällaisia me olemme - ihmiset. Sinä ja minä.

Friday, April 1, 2011

Conditional formatting bug in Numbers

I love Numbers and use it daily.

However, there is one annoying bug that I've put up with for too long. I use conditional formatting in my accounting sheet to show alarting colors "if not equal to cell (reference)". What happens is that copy/pasting such cell does NOT correspondingly update the conditional format reference. All the pasted cells will compare to the original reference.

This is *absolute* behaviour usually marked as "$A$1" (the dollars) in spreadsheets. However, the conditional formatting UI does not show $'s and therefore indicates the reference is relative. Actually, it does not *allow* changing the type of reference (which imho it should).

Usage case for relative reference in conditional formatting (this is how I use it):

- You have sums from the spreadsheet and below them "known right" sums i.e. from bank slips. If the two sums are not the same, mark with red bold color. Condition: "if not equal to (cell above)".

Usage case for absolute reference in conditional formatting (I don't use this):

- You have a spreadsheet-wide setting for some threshold value, i.e. to mark expenses higher than it. Expense cells have "if higher than (absolute cell)" to highlight the ones you should focus on.

I do hope Apple fixes this. I've reported it to them today.

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Retina display - also to the desktop. Please!

iPhone 4 has spoiled us (though I still have the 3GS version).

One part of Apple's launch advertising was saying how the retina display has pixels so small you cannot see them by naked eye.

NOW, that only made me realize I don't get that on desktop. Thanks a lot. :( I'm now acutely aware of how fuzzy the on-screen fonts are even on a state of the art monitor (typing this on a 27" Cinema Display that's anyways way too big for my needs).

I might return this monitor - don't envy just yet...

What I really would like is a 24-25 inch non-cinema (not 16:9 ratio) monitor that shows PDFs, program code and any stuff with "retina quality" crispness.

There is none, it seems. Advice on the web seems to point at viewing from a longer distance. But I'm used to being rather close to the display. Why, oh why. Apple please make a "retina display" experience. Make it soon. :)

Addendum:

Seems Apple may be doing exactly this.

"The developer build of Lion released this week came with fresh HiDPI mode references,
suggesting that Apple may expect 200ppi+ laptop and desktop displays to become available during Lion’s lifetime."


Now, a 4:1 resolution enhancement of Cinema display would make it 5120 x 2880 resolution. I think that's way beyond what DisplayPort can handle. My guess is these new displays (if/when they arrive) will use the just released Thunderbolt connection directly.

Addendum 2

I continued wondering how the Thunderbolt technology can affect display markets, and how a 5000x2000 pixel display could be implemented. Here's one way.

Thunderbolt is essentially PCI Express, and such could be used as the bus interface between the CPU and the GPU. The *display* could have the GPU.

This makes tremendous sense since with rising pixel count the data bandwidth between the CPU and the GPU will likely (I haven't calculated specifics) be way smaller than the bandwidth of pushing pixels to the screen. Make the display smart, essentially make it a display adapter card (with a display). And voilá - no PPI limitations to the forecoming future!

Things s.a. font blitting will then happen in the display. And the solution will be compatible with everything - not just OS X - since the concept of a PCI Express display adapter is OS independent. So... when can I get one? :)

Sunday, February 20, 2011

Backing up Boot camp partition with help of iPartition 3 (no WinClone)

Winclone has been the de facto tool for backing up a Boot camp partition. Its website says it's discontinued.

So... I went looking for an alternative way. Setting up Windows 7 (+ Security Essentials + Inventor 2011) is not such a pleasure I would voluntarily look for it (again). So I want to "image" the bootcamp partition somehow.

Ideally, the image would only carry the bytes actually used in the NTFS volume and not be a 1:1 copy of the raw device. So Linux-like bitwise device copy is ruled out.

I was surprised not to find a ready-made solution for this in the otherwise splendid Coriolis iPartition 3 software. But their customer support gave the following advice:

Hi Asko, Thank you for you comments :)
Actually, there is a simple way to do what I believe you wish to do using iPartition and Disk Utility. You can use Disk Utility to create a "sparse disk image" large enough to accommodate your windows partition.
Then, in iPartition, delete any partitions which may have been created in your new disk image then navigate to the windows partition that you wish to back up. Select this partition and chose "Clone..." from the Partition drop-down menu. Set the target disk to your new disk image and hit Go.
You can now unmount this disk image and you will see that the image (.sparseimage) file size is only the size of the files that Windows was using. This is because iPartition recognizes the free space in your partition when performing the clone operation.
We hope that you find this solution useful. If you need any further assistance or have any other issues then please don't hesitate to get in touch.
Kind regards, (person's name removed)

I'm doing that right now, and it seems to work (*knock knock*). I do wish they would build this procedure (or similar) and restoration of Boot camp partition from the backup such created, right into iPartition.

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Autodesk Inventor would actually fit on 5 (almost 4) DVDs



Autodesk Inventor 2011 Pro comes in a nice, smallish package. Within the package there are 7 (!) installation DVDs and separate Vault Server and "Fusioin technology Preview" discs. This blog entry is about the 7 DVDs.

What is the cost of making a DVD?

- manufacturing
- managing (it's a part in Autodesk's storehouse, somewhere)
- packaging (actually placing those DVDs inside the enclosure + one extra "page" per each 2/3 DVDs)
- shipping
- landfill

This site says the carbon footprint of a DVD is 1.06 pounds (453gCO2). Maybe that includes the enclosure but that is irrelevant, here.

Why am I writing this?

I was *blown* by having a software install from *7* DVDs. Windows takes only 1 (well, two if you count both 32- and 64-bit versions). So I went to see what's inside the DVDs - or how densely they have been packed. Well, they aren't.

If Autodesk reorganized the way they store file on the DVDs, they would be able to fit everything on 5 DVDs (a 28.5% savings). Why not do that?

Here's the numbers (single-sided DVD capacity is 4.7GB):

Disk 1/7: 3.74 GB used
Disk 2/7: 2.38 GB used
Disk 3/7: 3.05 GB used
Disk 4/7: 1.92 GB used
Disk 5/7: 2.19 GB used
Disk 6/7: 3.44 GB used
Disk 7/7: 2.53 GB used

Total: 19.25 GB used (which makes 4.09 fully filled DVDs)

To Autodesk, this might not be much. Peanuts. And they're probably proud to have such a gigantic installation experience (though in practice it's enough to give 4 of the 7 disks - both 32- and 64-bit versions are included). But where this counts is example. If you can slim something down, it should. So I'm saying they give a baddish example.

What's the footprint of a bit - electrical delivery

What they would be keen to point out is that "subscription" customers get an electrical delivery (download service). Right. Where this is good is that the customers can download only the required pieces (those ca. 4 DVDs worth). That's around 12GB with their filling ratio. But also that has a carbon footprint. Let's see.

For this, we need to consider i.e. delivery from California to Finland (my case). There may be 3-4 (or more) network hops on the way. Some calculations I found only include the server electricity usage but that's wrong. The bits need power to move, even if they'd be sent over fiber optics. So the question becomes: "what is the carbon footprint of sending one bit half-way around the world"?

TBD. If you can find a measurable answer to the above question, pls. make a comment. I did not find it.

But I found this article about energy use of data transmissions, saying:
He notes that some large carriers have energy bills approaching $1 billion.

Clearly, there's a roof to how much bits it's "free of charge" to move around. Someone pays the electricity bills. Internet is not free (for the environement).

Use the cloud

What would be interesting if Autodesk wants to further develop the "subscription" model is to employ peer-to-peer technologies. What this helps with is:
- less burden on their own servers
- faster download speed for customers
- lesser carbon footprint (because data is found closer to where it's needed - i.e. a Finnish customer would get the data from others in Finland)

Maybe they already do something like this, buying cloud services from Amazon, Microsoft, Google and other providers. Good, if they do.

What to do?

In summary, I like the AI2011 offering. I do. And it doesn't feel bloated in use, at all. Which makes it even more essential to make also the installation less bloated. Because it can be. I.e. like this:

- One "joined" (both 32- and 64-bit disk) that is used for starting.
- 2 disks for 32-bit Windows version.
- 2 disks for 64-bit Windows version.

The customer would need to give three disks for any AI2011 install. Looking forward to a slim install in AI 2013. Or maybe a torrent. :)

- Asko Kauppi


Thursday, February 10, 2011

Autodesk Inventor 2010 under VMWare Fusion 3.1.2

I'm going to do some work with Autodesk Inventor 2010 during this spring, and thought of documenting the installation experience here, for others to know of.

The full text will need to wait, but I thought to make a few notes of the important pieces, especially since I'm running it under an officially non-supported VMWare Fusion virtualisation. Here goes.

7 DVDs. Whoa. They must have an army building this stuff.

Those disks contain both 32- and 64-bit versions, which partly explains the size. But actually, installation apart, the software doesn't feel too heavy. It's snappy even under virtual machine (running on Mac Mini 2GHz, 4GB, with Windows 7 32-bit and 2GB memory allocated for the virtual machine).

One but. After install AI2011 has the "software graphics" option set. VMWare 3.1.2 can do DirectX9, which is enough for AI2011, so simply tick that option away. Faster. Looks better. Cool. :)

I've noticed sometimes AI2011 opts that switch back, by itself. Maybe it measures performance and as we know, virtual machines can have quirks in that, especially if the software is being running when suspended. So if things work slow, check that corner and untick the box.

Second but (not big, though).

I ordered a 3DConnexion SpaceExplorer "3D mouse" to help orientate within the drawings. The hardware's good and the demos and tutorials work swiftly under VMWare 3.1.2. However, using it under AI2011 is an absolute no-go. It takes a second or so for movements to be registered on screen. Maybe it's the SpaceExplorer AI "drivers" (rather adapters). Maybe it's something else. Clearly the "drivers" have been designed and only tested on rather fast 3D workstations. Makes sense.

Unfortunately the "driver" architecture of this thingy is such that I cannot run them native on OS X and have the device virtualized somehow (like a mouse) onto Windows. It all needs to run there. Maybe it has to do with USB performance. Go figure.

IF VMWare is looking into supporting Autodesk tools as I think they are, they should probably look at the speed issues with this hardware as well.







( One more thing. Untick "enable Mac OS mouse shortcut" boxes in VMWare Fusion Preferences - and use a two-button mouse. Makes Ctrl-clicking work in Windows. )

Addendum:

If you intend to use Inventor from both BootCamp (booting to Windows) and via VMWare Fusion, you will need a "network license" (and a license server somewhere on your network). The local license scheme gets confused by "hardware change". Discussion of this at Autodesk forum.